The Warning ShotPim Fortuyn's murder won't lead to a neo-Nazi upsurge, says Neal Ascherson in Rotterdam. But the rise of the new populist right could shock Europe's political elite out of its complacency
And yet Fortuyn was about more than his own small country. His searing, satirical contempt for the European political taboos of the twenty-first century placed him among the 'new populist' movements that have appeared all over the Continent in the past few years. It is true that most of them have traditionally far-right policies, whereas Fortuyn did not bother about traditions. He had no time for neo-Nazis, welcomed non-whites into his party (although he argued that Holland could absorb no more immigrants) and loudly attacked Islam for its intolerance to gays. But he was part of the rebellion against the consensus politics that dominate so many European states, a revolt against regimes that use the language of political correctness - 'sustainable development', 'social inclusion', 'consumer sovereignty' - to prevent real discussion of their own power-broking and corruption. The list of these new populist parties is long and will grow longer. Some are powerful and others insignificant; some incline towards violence and repression while others present themselves as anti-authoritarian platforms for personal liberation.
In France, there is Le Pen and the Front National; in Italy, the Alleanza Nazionale. In Holland there is Pim's 'List Fortuyn' and the movements for 'Habitable Holland' and 'Habitable Rotterdam'; in Belgian Flanders, there is the Vlaams Blok and in Germany the erratic 'Party of the Rule-of-Law Offensive', led by Ronald Schill. In Austria, Jörg Haider's Freedom Party, like the Alleanza in Italy, shares government power. In Denmark, Pia Kjaersgaard's Danske Folkeparti holds the parliamentary balance, while in Norway the Progress Party under Carl Ivar Hagen won over 15 per cent of the vote in 1997. The Swiss 'Centre Democratic Union', under Christoph Blocher, won 22.6 per cent of the vote in 1999. In Britain, or more accurately in England, the BNP lurks on the margins and won a few victories in local elections this month.
Is this the first phase, the formless embryo, of a new European fascism? Almost all of these groups emerged after the end of the Cold War, and some had much longer histories as obscure rightist fragments. But it took three events - the xenophobic skinhead violence in eastern Germany after reunification, the rise of Haider's party to power in Austria and this year's spectacular run for the French Presidency by Jean-Marie Le Pen - to sound the alarm throughout the world. In the United States, columnists thrilled by American 'unilateralism' took the chance to write that Europe was reverting to its natural barbarism, and that a new anti-Semitic Holocaust was probably brewing.
But the new populist parties, now on the rise, are not in themselves fascist. Neo-Nazi groups exist (such as the NPD, the National Democratic Party in Germany), but they are obscene survivals or revivals. Those who think that Le Pen or Gianfranco Fini in Italy are simply fascists should read some modern history.
The populists have a loose jumble of vengeful ideas. But 2002 is not 1932. Nobody thinks that capitalism is collapsing because of Germany's first big strike in seven years; nobody thinks that democracy has failed because Le Pen gave France such a fright. The only chance for the new populism to stay the course is to produce sparkling, charismatic whistle-blowers as its leaders. In government, and they will often win shares in coalitions, they will be sullen and ineffective. In the end, they may be just what their arch-enemies need. The new populist destiny could be just to blow holes in the grey, smooth surface of power and restore healthy pandemonium to politics. As a poster outside the Rotterdam Town Hall says, 'Sleep well, Pim. Because of you, Holland will stay awake.'